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Dominant Sandviken run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Falkenbergs FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Falkenbergs FF 4-1 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.20 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.13 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sandviken beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 38% | Draw 28% | Falkenbergs FF 34%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 100%, Falkenbergs FF 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Falkenbergs FF arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Sandviken winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandviken scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Falkenbergs FF shipped 4 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.