🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sandviken at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Falkenbergs FF travel to Jernvallen to take on Sandviken. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 June 2025, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandviken stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Sandviken's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Jernvallen this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sandviken are significantly better at Jernvallen than their overall form suggests.

Across all Superettan games this season, Falkenbergs FF have recorded 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Falkenbergs FF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sandviken 0.90 PPG, Falkenbergs FF 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.20 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.918 / defence 0.869 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.965 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.346. Data: 42 Sandviken games / 12 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sandviken 38% | Draw 28% | Falkenbergs FF 34%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Falkenbergs FF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sandviken are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandviken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights