Ostersunds FK 1-6 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 49%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Vasteras SK FK travel to Jamtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 October 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jamtkraft Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jamtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vasteras SK FK — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ostersunds FK, 2 for Vasteras SK FK and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 54% versus Vasteras SK FK 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 49% | Vasteras SK FK 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.91 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.085 / defence 1.104 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.100 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.143. Data: 55 Ostersunds FK games / 25 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 49% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 28%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Vasteras SK FK 3.57. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 70% | Vasteras SK FK 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 49% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.91 / Vasteras SK FK 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.085 / def 1.104 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.100 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Vasteras SK FK xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Jamtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 6 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 49% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (5 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 2 | Vasteras SK FK 2W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.08x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.30
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.29
1.39
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
15%
6.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
4%
24.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.39 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 16W 16D 23L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 21W 10D 24L from 55 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.16 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.67 PPG from 27 outings (12W 9D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 8W 3D 16L from 27 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.33 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 16W 16D 23L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 21W 10D 24L in their last 55 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.67 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasteras SK FK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when Vasteras SK FK won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
3
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Ostersunds FK 1-6 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 70%, Vasteras SK FK 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Ostersunds FK and 59% for Vasteras SK FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Ostersunds FK's games and 48% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 59% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Ostersunds FK 1-6 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.91 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.39 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 1.39 projection by 4.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.10 / defence 1.14, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 49% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 28%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 49%, Vasteras SK FK 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.16 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.