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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Varbergs BoIS FC edge out Ostersunds FK 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Ostersunds FK 0-1 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.58 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.84 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Varbergs BoIS FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.24 / defence 1.09 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.99, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 34% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 44%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, Varbergs BoIS FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Ostersunds FK arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Varbergs BoIS FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights