🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Ostersunds FK host Varbergs BoIS FC at Jamtkraft Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Ostersunds FK — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Jamtkraft Arena, Ostersunds FK have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jamtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Varbergs BoIS FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ostersunds FK 1.10 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ostersunds FK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Varbergs BoIS FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Ostersunds FK's 1 victories.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 2–1 with Ostersunds FK winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Varbergs BoIS FC have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 62% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.58 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.244 / defence 1.094 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.288 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.306. Varbergs BoIS FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Ostersunds FK games / 36 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 34% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.94 | Draw 4.55 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Varbergs BoIS FC at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 70% | Varbergs BoIS FC 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights