Ostersunds FK 0-3 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utsikten at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jämtkraft Arena plays host to Ostersunds FK versus Utsikten in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 2 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ostersunds FK have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Utsikten's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utsikten's away record: 3W 0D 2L from 5 road trips in Superettan this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Utsikten are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Utsikten — key trading statistics (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 54% versus Utsikten 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 36% | Utsikten 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.13 xG and Utsikten 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.742 / defence 1.151 | Utsikten attack 1.022 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.366. Ostersunds FK's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Ostersunds FK games / 11 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 26% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 47%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Utsikten 2.13. Utsikten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utsikten are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utsikten if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Ostersunds FK 40% | Utsikten 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 26% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.13 / Utsikten 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.742 / def 1.151 | Utsikten attack 1.022 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Utsikten xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 July 2022 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 3 Utsikten.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 26% chance of winning, Utsikten a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Utsikten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Utsikten in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Utsikten (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Utsikten's attack (1.02x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
26%
3.90
27%
3.68
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.74
1.61
Utsikten xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
5%
19.43
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.61 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 3D 7L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Utsikten sit at 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utsikten carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.27 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.55 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Utsikten have taken 2.25 points per game from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.82 PPG overall record — Utsikten travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.91 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Utsikten in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Utsikten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Utsikten away?
Utsikten's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.00 PPG; Utsikten away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Utsikten in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utsikten won 0-3 on 2 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Utsikten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
4
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Utsikten?
From 8 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Utsikten have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2025, when Ostersunds FK 2-1 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Utsikten?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 50%, Utsikten 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ostersunds FK) and 50% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Utsikten in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Utsikten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 25% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 50% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Utsikten tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utsikten run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Ostersunds FK 0-3 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.13 xG and Utsikten 1.61 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Utsikten outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.74 / defence 1.15 against Utsikten attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 26% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 47%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 36%, Utsikten 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Utsikten's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Utsikten arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.55. Form held, and they took the win. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utsikten (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.