Degerfors IF 2-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Degerfors IF host Helsingborg at Stora Valla in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Degerfors IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Helsingborg away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Degerfors IF) versus 1.50 (Helsingborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Degerfors IF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Helsingborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Degerfors IF, 0 for Helsingborg and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 60% versus Helsingborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 50% | Helsingborg 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.38 xG and Helsingborg 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.960 / defence 1.026 | Helsingborg attack 1.191 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 0.897. Data: 3 Degerfors IF games / 33 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 43% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 29%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Helsingborg 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | Helsingborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 43% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Degerfors IF 1.38 / Helsingborg 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.960 / def 1.026 | Helsingborg attack 1.191 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.377 / away 0.897 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Helsingborg xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg?
Degerfors IF 2 - 1 Helsingborg.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg part of?
Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 43% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Degerfors IF and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Helsingborg?
Record (2 meetings): Degerfors IF 2W | Draws 0 | Helsingborg 0W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Helsingborg in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.96x the league average against Helsingborg's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.58
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.48
1.10
Helsingborg xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
7%
13.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.10 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Helsingborg, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 13L across 30 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.03 PPG, Helsingborg on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 5W 6D 4L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helsingborg's away record stands at 2W 6D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.07 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
Helsingborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Helsingborg away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.40 PPG; Helsingborg away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
0
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Helsingborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, Helsingborg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2024, when Helsingborg 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Helsingborg?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, Helsingborg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Degerfors IF) and 33% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 40% of games; Helsingborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Degerfors IF's games and 60% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 33% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Degerfors IF edge out Helsingborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Helsingborg 2-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.38 xG and Helsingborg 1.10 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Helsingborg attack 1.19 / defence 1.05, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 43% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 29%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 50%, Helsingborg 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Helsingborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.03 PPG, Helsingborg 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.