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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ostersunds FK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Orebro SK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ostersunds FK beat Orebro SK 3-1 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.86 xG and Orebro SK 1.53 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.01 / defence 1.10 against Orebro SK attack 1.08 / defence 1.27, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 22% | Orebro SK 32%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.30 PPG, Orebro SK 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Orebro SK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights