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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 10 as Ostersunds FK welcome Orebro SK to Jamtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Ostersunds FK's home record at Jamtkraft Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jamtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Orebro SK's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Orebro SK's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Orebro SK 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2024, ended 1–4 with Orebro SK winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 62% versus Orebro SK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | Orebro SK 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.86 xG and Orebro SK 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.008 / defence 1.100 | Orebro SK attack 1.080 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.291. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Ostersunds FK games / 39 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 22% | Orebro SK 32%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Orebro SK 3.12. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orebro SK (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 70% | Orebro SK 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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