Ostersunds FK 1-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 18 as Ostersunds FK welcome GIF Sundsvall to Jamtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Jamtkraft Arena this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Ostersunds FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ostersunds FK, 3 for GIF Sundsvall and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2026, ended 2–0 with Ostersunds FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 51% versus GIF Sundsvall 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 49% | GIF Sundsvall 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 2.26 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.038 / defence 0.908 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.659 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.364. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.466 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Ostersunds FK games / 47 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 70% | Draw 18% | GIF Sundsvall 12%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | GIF Sundsvall 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Ostersunds FK (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 50% | GIF Sundsvall 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Friday 7 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 70% | Draw 18% | GIF Sundsvall 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 50% | xG Ostersunds FK 2.26 / GIF Sundsvall 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.038 / def 0.908 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.659 / def 1.466 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.82
GIF Sundsvall xG
50%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 7 August 2026 at Jamtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 70% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (7 meetings): Ostersunds FK 2W | Draws 2 | GIF Sundsvall 3W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.26. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.52
12%
8.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.08
0.82
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.52
18%
Draw
8.38
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
10%
9.58
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
1%
80.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.82 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 17W 14D 16L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 14W 7D 26L from 47 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.38 PPG, GIF Sundsvall on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.83 PPG from 23 outings (12W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 8W 2D 13L from 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.04 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 17W 14D 16L in their last 47 games (1.38 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 14W 7D 26L in their last 47 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.83 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ostersunds FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2023, when Ostersunds FK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall?
From 8 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Ostersunds FK 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 65%, GIF Sundsvall 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Ostersunds FK) and 52% (GIF Sundsvall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 44% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 52% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out GIF Sundsvall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 2.26 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.82 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. GIF Sundsvall landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.04 / defence 0.91 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.66 / defence 1.47, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 70% | Draw 18% | GIF Sundsvall 12%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 49%, GIF Sundsvall 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.38 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.