Osters IF 1-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 37%, yet in-form Osters IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osters IF and Ostersunds FK meet at Visma Arena in Superettan (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Osters IF's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Osters IF have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ostersunds FK (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Osters IF's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Osters IF edge it 2 wins to 1, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended Osters IF 0–0 Ostersunds FK — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 57% versus Ostersunds FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 50% | Ostersunds FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.12 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.688 / defence 0.968 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.974 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.230. Osters IF's attack rating of 0.688 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from Osters IF's last 3 games and Ostersunds FK's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Osters IF 35% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 37%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.88 | Draw 3.51 | Ostersunds FK 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osters IF (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches — though recent form (Osters IF's last 10 home games and Ostersunds FK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osters IF 60% (last 10 home games) | Ostersunds FK 20% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Osters IF 3 games, Ostersunds FK 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 4 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 35% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Osters IF 1.12 / Ostersunds FK 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.688 / def 0.968 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.974 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Ostersunds FK xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK FAQs
What time does Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Osters IF 1 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 4) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 35% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Osters IF and Ostersunds FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 0.69x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.97x) against Osters IF's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Osters IF's last 3 games and Ostersunds FK's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
35%
2.88
28%
3.51
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.28
1.16
Ostersunds FK xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.16 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 15W 9D 6L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 2.07 PPG from their last 15 home games (9W 4D 2L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 5D 8L from their last 15 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osters IF are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.10 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Pre-Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Osters IF (Home) vs Ostersunds FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osters IF
Pre-Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK Form FAQs
What form are Osters IF and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 15W 9D 6L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Osters IF's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 2.07 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osters IF have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Osters IF
3
Draws
2
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Ostersunds FK?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Osters IF have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Ostersunds FK 1-0 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Ostersunds FK?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 53%, Ostersunds FK 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Osters IF) and 27% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osters IF and Ostersunds FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Osters IF's recent matches and 20% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osters IF and Ostersunds FK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Osters IF's recent games and 27% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Ostersunds FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Osters IF's recent matches and 60% of Ostersunds FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osters IF defy the odds to beat Ostersunds FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Ostersunds FK 1-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.12 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.16 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.69 / defence 0.97 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.97 / defence 0.97, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 35% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 37%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Osters IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 50%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.