Orgryte IS 1-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Trelleborg at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 18 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 4W 6D 0L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Trelleborg have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Orgryte IS have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Trelleborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Orgryte IS, 0 for Trelleborg and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Orgryte IS trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Trelleborg trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 67% and Trelleborg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 47% | Trelleborg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.58 xG and Trelleborg 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.805 / defence 1.035 | Trelleborg attack 0.987 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.399. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Orgryte IS games / 37 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 41% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 34%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Trelleborg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 90% | Trelleborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 41% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Orgryte IS 1.58 / Trelleborg 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.805 / def 1.035 | Trelleborg attack 0.987 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Trelleborg xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 18 May 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Orgryte IS 1 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg part of?
Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 41% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Orgryte IS and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Trelleborg?
Record (2 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 2 | Trelleborg 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.81x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
41%
2.45
25%
4.06
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.01
1.43
Trelleborg xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
7%
14.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.43 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 14D 7L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (11W 10D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.37 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Orgryte IS's home form reads 4W 9D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (3W 7D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.40 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Trelleborg in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 9W 14D 7L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 11W 10D 9L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Trelleborg away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.40 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Orgryte IS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
6
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Trelleborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, Trelleborg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2025, when Trelleborg 0-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Orgryte IS at 67%, Trelleborg at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Orgryte IS) and 40% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Orgryte IS's games and 67% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 40% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Orgryte IS 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.58 xG and Trelleborg 1.43 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.81 / defence 1.03 against Trelleborg attack 0.99 / defence 1.24, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 41% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 34%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 47%, Trelleborg 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.37 PPG, Trelleborg 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.