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Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Trelleborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orgryte IS beat Trelleborg 2-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 2.66 xG and Trelleborg 0.58 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.62 / defence 0.74 against Trelleborg attack 0.57 / defence 1.14, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 82% | Draw 13% | Trelleborg 6%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 82%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 57%, Trelleborg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.33 PPG, Trelleborg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights