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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 82%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Orgryte IS host Trelleborg at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Orgryte IS — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 7W 2D 1L at Gamla Ullevi — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling in Superettan this season, Trelleborg have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, Orgryte IS have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Trelleborg have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Orgryte IS.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Trelleborg winning.

It is worth noting that Trelleborg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Orgryte IS trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).

Trelleborg trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 62% versus Trelleborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 57% | Trelleborg 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 2.66 xG and Trelleborg 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.618 / defence 0.738 | Trelleborg attack 0.570 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.378. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.618 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Orgryte IS games / 40 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 82% | Draw 13% | Trelleborg 6%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.22 | Draw 7.69 | Trelleborg 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Orgryte IS (82%) — a 76pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Trelleborg lead the H2H ledger, but Orgryte IS carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 82% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Orgryte IS 80% | Trelleborg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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