Orgryte IS 2-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 82%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Trelleborg at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 7W 2D 1L at Gamla Ullevi — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Trelleborg have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Orgryte IS have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Trelleborg have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Orgryte IS.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Trelleborg winning.
It is worth noting that Trelleborg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Orgryte IS trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Trelleborg trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 62% versus Trelleborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 57% | Trelleborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 2.66 xG and Trelleborg 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.618 / defence 0.738 | Trelleborg attack 0.570 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.378. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.618 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Orgryte IS games / 40 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 82% | Draw 13% | Trelleborg 6%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.22 | Draw 7.69 | Trelleborg 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Orgryte IS (82%) — a 76pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Trelleborg lead the H2H ledger, but Orgryte IS carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 82% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Orgryte IS 80% | Trelleborg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 31 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 82% | Draw 13% | Trelleborg 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 41% | xG Orgryte IS 2.66 / Trelleborg 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.618 / def 0.738 | Trelleborg attack 0.570 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Trelleborg xG
41%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 May 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Orgryte IS 2 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg part of?
Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 82% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 6% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Orgryte IS and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Trelleborg?
Record (8 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 2 | Trelleborg 6W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.62x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
82%
1.23
13%
7.88
6%
17.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.24
0.58
Trelleborg xG
1.23
82%
Home win
7.88
13%
Draw
17.27
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
7%
14.35
Win to Nil
46%
2.19
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.58 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 14D 24L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.35 PPG from 60 outings (22W 15D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.33 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Orgryte IS's home form reads 11W 8D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.17 points per game from 30 outings (9W 8D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.22 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 22W 15D 23L in their last 60 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Trelleborg away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.37 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Orgryte IS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
6
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Trelleborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, Trelleborg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2025, when Trelleborg 0-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 70%, Trelleborg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Orgryte IS and 50% for Trelleborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trelleborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Orgryte IS's games and 53% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Orgryte IS's matches and 50% of Trelleborg's.
Do Orgryte IS and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Trelleborg 2-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 2.66 xG and Trelleborg 0.58 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.62 / defence 0.74 against Trelleborg attack 0.57 / defence 1.14, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 82% | Draw 13% | Trelleborg 6%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 82%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 57%, Trelleborg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.33 PPG, Trelleborg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.