Orgryte IS 0-0 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Orgryte IS (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Orgryte IS face Oddevold.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oddevold make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Orgryte IS in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 August 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi.
Oddevold's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Orgryte IS's favour (2.20 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Orgryte IS 2W, Oddevold 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 1–0 with Orgryte IS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Oddevold goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 66% and Oddevold 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 62% | Oddevold 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.47 xG and Oddevold 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.620 / defence 0.797 | Oddevold attack 0.986 / defence 0.638. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.331. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.620 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Oddevold's defence strength of 0.638 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Orgryte IS games / 47 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 27% | Oddevold 27%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Oddevold 3.70. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Orgryte IS 40% | Oddevold 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 27% | Oddevold 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Orgryte IS 1.47 / Oddevold 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.620 / def 0.797 | Oddevold attack 0.986 / def 0.638 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Oddevold xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Oddevold kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Oddevold kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Oddevold?
Orgryte IS 0 - 0 Oddevold.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Oddevold part of?
Orgryte IS vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 47% chance of winning, Oddevold a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Orgryte IS and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Oddevold?
Record (3 meetings): Orgryte IS 2W | Draws 1 | Oddevold 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Oddevold in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Oddevold (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (1.62x league average) is weighed against Oddevold's defensive record (0.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Oddevold's attack (0.99x) against Orgryte IS's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.73
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.52
1.05
Oddevold xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
6%
16.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.05 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 22W 12D 13L from 47 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oddevold, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 15L across 47 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.36 for Oddevold. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 14W 4D 5L from 23 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oddevold's away record stands at 9W 8D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.21 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Oddevold
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Oddevold in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 22W 12D 13L in their last 47 games (1.66 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 16W 16D 15L in their last 47 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Oddevold away?
Orgryte IS's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 2.00 PPG; Oddevold away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Oddevold — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
0
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Oddevold?
From 4 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, Oddevold have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Orgryte IS 0-0 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Oddevold?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 61%, Oddevold 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Orgryte IS and 56% for Oddevold. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Oddevold in 35%; Oddevold in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Oddevold?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Orgryte IS's games and 52% of Oddevold's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Orgryte IS's matches and 56% of Oddevold's.
Do Orgryte IS and Oddevold tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Orgryte IS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS and Oddevold finished level at 0-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.47 xG and Oddevold 1.05 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Oddevold landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.62 / defence 0.80 against Oddevold attack 0.99 / defence 0.64, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 27% | Oddevold 27%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 62%, Oddevold 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Oddevold's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.66 PPG, Oddevold 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.