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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Orgryte IS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kalmar FF beat Orgryte IS 0-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.12 xG and Kalmar FF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.14 / defence 0.89 against Kalmar FF attack 0.92 / defence 0.62, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 38% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 30%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kalmar FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 59%, Kalmar FF 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orgryte IS's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Kalmar FF's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.71 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights