🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 38%, yet in-form Kalmar FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF meet at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 November 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Orgryte IS (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Kalmar FF's overall Superettan record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Kalmar FF's form when playing away from home: 3W 7D 0L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Kalmar FF arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 2.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Kalmar FF in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Orgryte IS, 0 for Kalmar FF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2025, ended 3–2 with Orgryte IS winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Kalmar FF half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 62% versus Kalmar FF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 59% | Kalmar FF 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.12 xG and Kalmar FF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.143 / defence 0.886 | Kalmar FF attack 0.921 / defence 0.625. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.189. Kalmar FF's defence strength of 0.625 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Orgryte IS games / 28 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 38% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 30%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Kalmar FF 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kalmar FF (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 30% | Kalmar FF 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights