🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Orgryte IS and IK brage share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 20, as Orgryte IS and IK brage drew 2-2 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 2.03 xG and IK brage 1.29 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.49 / defence 0.74 against IK brage attack 1.35 / defence 1.00, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 54% | Draw 22% | IK brage 24%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 61%, IK brage 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orgryte IS's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

IK brage's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.67 PPG, IK brage 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights