🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees IK brage travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 August 2025, 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.

IK brage away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Orgryte IS) versus 1.70 (IK brage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Orgryte IS, 4 for IK brage and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2025, ended 2–3 with IK brage winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

IK brage in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 65% versus IK brage 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 61% | IK brage 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 2.03 xG and IK brage 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.494 / defence 0.745 | IK brage attack 1.347 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.283. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.494 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IK brage have an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 0.745 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Orgryte IS games / 49 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 54% | Draw 22% | IK brage 24%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | IK brage 4.17. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Orgryte IS 30% | IK brage 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights