Orebro SK 1-1 Umeå FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Umeå FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orebro SK and Umeå FC meet at Behrn Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Monday 25 August 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orebro SK have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Behrn Arena this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Umeå FC's overall Superettan record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Umeå FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Umeå FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 6L from 9 away games — 0.56 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Orebro SK, 0 for Umeå FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Umeå FC half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 63% versus Umeå FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 58% | Umeå FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.56 xG and Umeå FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.826 / defence 1.128 | Umeå FC attack 0.871 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.281. Umeå FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.379 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Orebro SK games / 19 Umeå FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 44% | Draw 26% | Umeå FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Umeå FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 50% | Umeå FC 44%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Umeå FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 25 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 44% | Draw 26% | Umeå FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Orebro SK 1.56 / Umeå FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.826 / def 1.128 | Umeå FC attack 0.871 / def 1.379 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Umeå FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Umeå FC kick off?
Orebro SK vs Umeå FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 25 August 2025 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Umeå FC?
Orebro SK 1 - 1 Umeå FC.
Where is Orebro SK vs Umeå FC being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Umeå FC part of?
Orebro SK vs Umeå FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Umeå FC?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 44% chance of winning, Umeå FC a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Umeå FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Orebro SK and Umeå FC will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Umeå FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Umeå FC?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 1 | Umeå FC 0W.
What form are Orebro SK and Umeå FC in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Umeå FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Umeå FC's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Umeå FC's attack (0.87x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.79
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.82
1.26
Umeå FC xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
6%
15.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Umeå FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Umeå FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.26 for Umeå FC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Umeå FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 0W 7D 12L from 19 games, a 0.37 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Umeå FC, meanwhile, have gone 1W 5D 13L across 19 games — 0.42 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Umeå FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.37 PPG for Orebro SK against 0.42 for Umeå FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 0W 4D 5L from 9 games — 0.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Umeå FC's away record stands at 1W 2D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Umeå FC are on 0.79 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Umeå FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Umeå FC in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 0W 7D 12L in their last 19 games (0.37 PPG), while Umeå FC have gone 1W 5D 13L in their last 19 (0.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Umeå FC away?
Umeå FC's away record (0.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 0.44 PPG; Umeå FC away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Orebro SK
2
Draws
0
Umeå FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Umeå FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 0, Umeå FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Umeå FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Orebro SK 1-1 Umeå FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Umeå FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 44%, Umeå FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Orebro SK) and 56% (Umeå FC).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 56% of games; Umeå FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Umeå FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Umeå FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 44% of Umeå FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Umeå FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Orebro SK's recent games and 56% of Umeå FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Umeå FC tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Umeå FC in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK and Umeå FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Orebro SK and Umeå FC drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.56 xG and Umeå FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.83 / defence 1.13 against Umeå FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.38, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 44% | Draw 26% | Umeå FC 30%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 58%, Umeå FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Umeå FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 0.37 PPG, Umeå FC 0.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Umeå FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.