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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Orebro SK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ostersunds FK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orebro SK beat Ostersunds FK 2-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.25 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.97 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ostersunds FK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.80 / defence 1.13 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.70 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 42% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 28%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 53%, Ostersunds FK 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orebro SK's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orebro SK 0.92 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights