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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 22 as Orebro SK welcome Ostersunds FK to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Orebro SK have posted 0W 5D 5L at Behrn Arena — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Orebro SK 0.50 PPG, Ostersunds FK 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Orebro SK, 3 for Ostersunds FK and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 1–3 with Ostersunds FK winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 63% versus Ostersunds FK 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 53% | Ostersunds FK 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.25 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.795 / defence 1.131 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.701 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.219. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Orebro SK games / 51 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Orebro SK 42% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 28%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Ostersunds FK 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 50% | Ostersunds FK 30% BTTS from recent games.

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