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Prediction vindicated as Orebro SK edge out Landskrona BoIS 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orebro SK beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.77 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.17 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 51% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 24%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 53%, Landskrona BoIS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orebro SK's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Orebro SK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orebro SK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights