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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Landskrona BoIS defy the odds to beat Orebro SK 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Landskrona BoIS beat Orebro SK 1-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.47 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.94 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 49% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 23%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Landskrona BoIS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 54%, Landskrona BoIS 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orebro SK's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Orebro SK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights