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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Landskrona BoIS's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 1.40 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Orebro SK, 3 for Landskrona BoIS and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2025, ended 0–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 65% versus Landskrona BoIS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 54% | Landskrona BoIS 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.47 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.952 / defence 1.029 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.779 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.178. Data: 57 Orebro SK games / 57 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Orebro SK 49% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 23%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Landskrona BoIS 4.35. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 70% | Landskrona BoIS 40%.

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