🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Orebro SK edge out Hammarby Talang 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orebro SK beat Hammarby Talang 1-0 at Behrn Arena, Final, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.68 xG and Hammarby Talang 1.13 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hammarby Talang landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Hammarby Talang attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 49% | Draw 26% | Hammarby Talang 25%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 0%, Hammarby Talang 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Hammarby Talang arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Orebro SK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orebro SK scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby Talang managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights