Orebro SK 1-0 Hammarby Talang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 49%, yet in-form Hammarby Talang provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orebro SK vs Hammarby Talang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Final as Orebro SK welcome Hammarby Talang to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Behrn Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hammarby Talang — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Superettan fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Hammarby Talang have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby Talang's 3.00 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Orebro SK's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Orebro SK, 1 for Hammarby Talang and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Hammarby Talang winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.68 xG and Hammarby Talang 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.930 / defence 1.062 | Hammarby Talang attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.252. Data: 60 Orebro SK games / 0 Hammarby Talang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 49% | Draw 26% | Hammarby Talang 25%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Hammarby Talang 4.00. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hammarby Talang (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 1.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Hammarby Talang | Competition: Superettan, Final | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 49% | Draw 26% | Hammarby Talang 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Orebro SK 1.68 / Hammarby Talang 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.930 / def 1.062 | Hammarby Talang attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Hammarby Talang xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Hammarby Talang kick off?
Orebro SK vs Hammarby Talang kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Hammarby Talang?
Orebro SK 1 - 0 Hammarby Talang.
Where is Orebro SK vs Hammarby Talang being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Hammarby Talang part of?
Orebro SK vs Hammarby Talang is a Final fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Hammarby Talang?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 49% chance of winning, Hammarby Talang a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Hammarby Talang?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Orebro SK and Hammarby Talang will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Hammarby Talang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Hammarby Talang?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 0 | Hammarby Talang 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Hammarby Talang in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Hammarby Talang (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.93x the league average against Hammarby Talang's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby Talang's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.86
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.81
1.13
Hammarby Talang xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
5%
21.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Hammarby Talang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Hammarby Talang expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.13 for Hammarby Talang, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Hammarby Talang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Orebro SK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hammarby Talang's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Hammarby Talang, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Hammarby Talang are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hammarby Talang are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Hammarby Talang in 0%.
Defensively: Hammarby Talang in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Early Season
Hammarby Talang
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Hammarby Talang in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Hammarby Talang have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Orebro SK or Hammarby Talang been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Hammarby Talang in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
0
Draws
1
Hammarby Talang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Hammarby Talang?
From 2 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Hammarby Talang have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Hammarby Talang last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Orebro SK 1-0 Hammarby Talang.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Hammarby Talang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Hammarby Talang?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 0% of Hammarby Talang's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Hammarby Talang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Orebro SK's recent games and 0% of Hammarby Talang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Hammarby Talang tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hammarby Talang in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orebro SK edge out Hammarby Talang 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Hammarby Talang 1-0 at Behrn Arena, Final, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.68 xG and Hammarby Talang 1.13 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hammarby Talang landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Hammarby Talang attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 49% | Draw 26% | Hammarby Talang 25%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 0%, Hammarby Talang 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby Talang arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Orebro SK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orebro SK scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby Talang managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.