Oddevold 0-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Orgryte IS make the trip to Rimnersvallen to face Oddevold in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 July 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Oddevold (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Rimnersvallen this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Rimnersvallen this season.
Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Oddevold, 1.70 for Orgryte IS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Oddevold register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Orgryte IS in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Oddevold 0W, Orgryte IS 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2024, ended 2–4 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Oddevold goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Oddevold 61% and Orgryte IS 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 64% | Orgryte IS 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.64 xG and Orgryte IS 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.902 / defence 1.293 | Orgryte IS attack 1.170 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.321. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Oddevold's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Oddevold games / 44 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 32% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 46%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 3.12 | Draw 4.76 | Orgryte IS 2.17. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.64 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 80% | Orgryte IS 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 32% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Oddevold 1.64 / Orgryte IS 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.902 / def 1.293 | Orgryte IS attack 1.170 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Orgryte IS xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Oddevold vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Orgryte IS?
Oddevold 0 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Oddevold vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Orgryte IS part of?
Oddevold vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 32% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 46% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Oddevold and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Orgryte IS?
Record (2 meetings): Oddevold 0W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are Oddevold and Orgryte IS in?
Oddevold (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Oddevold's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (1.17x) against Oddevold's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
32%
3.12
21%
4.66
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Oddevold xG
Total xG
3.64
2.00
Orgryte IS xG
3.12
32%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
14%
7.37
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
4%
23.00
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Oddevold and 2.00 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Oddevold have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 16W 14D 14L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS's form line: 19W 12D 13L from 44 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Oddevold against 1.57 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Oddevold have posted 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 6W 8D 7L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Oddevold are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.84 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Orgryte IS in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 16W 14D 14L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 19W 12D 13L in their last 44 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Orgryte IS away?
Oddevold's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.29 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oddevold have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Oddevold
2
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Orgryte IS?
From 4 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 0, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Orgryte IS 0-0 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Oddevold, 71% for Orgryte IS — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Oddevold) and 48% (Orgryte IS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Oddevold's games and 71% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Oddevold's matches and 48% of Orgryte IS's.
Do Oddevold and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orgryte IS edge out Oddevold 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Oddevold 0-1 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.64 xG and Orgryte IS 2.00 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oddevold fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Orgryte IS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.90 / defence 1.29 against Orgryte IS attack 1.17 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 32% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 46%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 64%, Orgryte IS 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.41 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.