Oddevold 1-2 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Rimnersvallen plays host to Oddevold versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 1 June 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Oddevold have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Oddevold's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Rimnersvallen this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Oddevold, 1.10 for Landskrona BoIS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Oddevold 0W, Landskrona BoIS 2W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with Landskrona BoIS winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Oddevold goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 60% versus Landskrona BoIS 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 63% | Landskrona BoIS 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.50 xG and Landskrona BoIS 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.866 / defence 1.426 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.236 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.333. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Oddevold's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Landskrona BoIS have an above-average attack strength of 1.236 — the away xG of 2.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Oddevold games / 40 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Oddevold 24% | Draw 20% | Landskrona BoIS 56%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 4.17 | Draw 5.00 | Landskrona BoIS 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 2.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 60% | Landskrona BoIS 50% BTTS from recent games.

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