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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Oddevold.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kalmar FF beat Oddevold 1-3 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.08 xG and Kalmar FF 0.82 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kalmar FF outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Kalmar FF attack 0.71 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Oddevold 41% | Draw 31% | Kalmar FF 27%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Kalmar FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 63%, Kalmar FF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.20 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights