Oddevold 1-3 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kalmar FF make the trip to Rimnersvallen to face Oddevold in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 11 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Oddevold (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Oddevold at Rimnersvallen this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kalmar FF's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kalmar FF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kalmar FF's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Oddevold, 1.80 for Kalmar FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Oddevold goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 60% versus Kalmar FF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 63% | Kalmar FF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.08 xG and Kalmar FF 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.956 / defence 0.946 | Kalmar FF attack 0.715 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.216. Data: 32 Oddevold games / 2 Kalmar FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Oddevold 41% | Draw 31% | Kalmar FF 27%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Kalmar FF 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Oddevold as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oddevold if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Oddevold 60% | Kalmar FF 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Friday 11 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 41% | Draw 31% | Kalmar FF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Oddevold 1.08 / Kalmar FF 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.956 / def 0.946 | Kalmar FF attack 0.715 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Kalmar FF xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Oddevold vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 11 April 2025 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Kalmar FF?
Oddevold 1 - 3 Kalmar FF.
Where is Oddevold vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Kalmar FF part of?
Oddevold vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 41% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Oddevold and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Kalmar FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oddevold and Kalmar FF in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Oddevold's attack rating (0.96) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.71x) against Oddevold's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
41%
2.42
31%
3.19
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Oddevold xG
Total xG
1.91
0.82
Kalmar FF xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Oddevold and 0.82 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oddevold's recent record stands at 8W 12D 10L from 30 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 11L across 30 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. Kalmar FF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Oddevold against 1.50 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Oddevold have managed 4W 7D 4L from 15 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 5W 3D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Oddevold are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 8W 12D 10L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Kalmar FF away?
Oddevold's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.27 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Oddevold or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Oddevold
0
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Kalmar FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 0, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Kalmar FF 3-2 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 60%, Kalmar FF 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Oddevold) and 53% (Kalmar FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oddevold have failed to score in 33% of games; Kalmar FF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Oddevold's recent matches and 47% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oddevold vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Oddevold's matches and 53% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Oddevold and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Oddevold.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Oddevold 1-3 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.08 xG and Kalmar FF 0.82 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kalmar FF outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Kalmar FF attack 0.71 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 41% | Draw 31% | Kalmar FF 27%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Kalmar FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 63%, Kalmar FF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.20 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.