Oddevold 2-1 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Oddevold take on Gefle IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Gefle IF travel to Rimnersvallen to take on Oddevold. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gefle IF stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Gefle IF have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 0.81 xG and Gefle IF 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.723 / defence 1.005 | Gefle IF attack 0.905 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 0.877. Oddevold's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Oddevold games / 33 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 33% | Draw 35% | Gefle IF 32%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Gefle IF 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Gefle IF's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 33% | Draw 35% | Gefle IF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Oddevold 0.81 / Gefle IF 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.723 / def 1.005 | Gefle IF attack 0.905 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.313 / away 0.877 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Gefle IF xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Gefle IF kick off?
Oddevold vs Gefle IF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Gefle IF?
Oddevold 2 - 1 Gefle IF.
Where is Oddevold vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Gefle IF part of?
Oddevold vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 33% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Oddevold and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Gefle IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oddevold and Gefle IF in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Gefle IF away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oddevold's attack at 0.72x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gefle IF's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.05
35%
2.84
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Oddevold xG
Total xG
1.61
0.80
Gefle IF xG
3.05
33%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.27
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 16.0 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.7%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Oddevold and 0.80 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Pre-Season
Gefle IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Oddevold
1
Draws
0
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Gefle IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 1, Gefle IF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2024, when Gefle IF 1-1 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Gefle IF?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Oddevold edge out Gefle IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Gefle IF 2-1 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 0.81 xG and Gefle IF 0.80 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Oddevold beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.72 / defence 1.00 against Gefle IF attack 0.91 / defence 0.85, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 33% | Draw 35% | Gefle IF 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Oddevold win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.