Norrby IF 0-0 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Norrby IF at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norrby IF vs Vasalund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Vasalund travel to Borås Arena to take on Norrby IF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 September 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Norrby IF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Borås Arena, Norrby IF have gone 5W 1D 2L this season (8 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Norrby IF are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Vasalund — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasalund away from home this season: 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Norrby IF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Norrby IF, 0 for Vasalund and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2021, ended 1–0 with Norrby IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Norrby IF trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Vasalund trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 50% versus Vasalund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 44% | Vasalund 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.62 xG and Vasalund 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 1.035 / defence 1.063 | Vasalund attack 0.734 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.105. Vasalund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.418 — this is suppressing Norrby IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Norrby IF games / 18 Vasalund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 55% | Draw 25% | Vasalund 20%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Vasalund 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Norrby IF (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Norrby IF are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Norrby IF 50% | Vasalund 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 55% | Draw 25% | Vasalund 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Norrby IF 1.62 / Vasalund 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 1.035 / def 1.063 | Vasalund attack 0.734 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Vasalund xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Vasalund kick off?
Norrby IF vs Vasalund kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 September 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Vasalund?
Norrby IF 0 - 0 Vasalund.
Where is Norrby IF vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Vasalund part of?
Norrby IF vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 55% chance of winning, Vasalund a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Norrby IF and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Vasalund?
Record (1 meetings): Norrby IF 1W | Draws 0 | Vasalund 0W.
What form are Norrby IF and Vasalund in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Vasalund (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Norrby IF's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Vasalund's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Vasalund's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.04
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.49
0.86
Vasalund xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
4%
25.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Norrby IF and 0.86 for Vasalund, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Vasalund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Norrby IF come into this having played 18 games, going 9W 4D 5L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasalund sit at 0.94 PPG from 18 outings (5W 2D 11L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Vasalund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Norrby IF's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasalund have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (1W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasalund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norrby IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Norrby IF are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Vasalund are on 1.33 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
Vasalund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Vasalund in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 9W 4D 5L in their last 18 games (1.72 PPG), while Vasalund have gone 5W 2D 11L in their last 18 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Vasalund away?
Norrby IF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 2.00 PPG; Vasalund away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or Vasalund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vasalund in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
1
Draws
0
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, Vasalund have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2021, when Norrby IF 0-0 Vasalund.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Vasalund?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Vasalund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 50%, Vasalund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Norrby IF) and 62% (Vasalund).
On the defensive side: Vasalund in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Vasalund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Norrby IF's recent matches and 50% of Vasalund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norrby IF vs Vasalund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Norrby IF's recent games and 62% of Vasalund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Vasalund tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Vasalund in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Norrby IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 19, as Norrby IF and Vasalund drew 0-0 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.62 xG and Vasalund 0.86 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Norrby IF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Vasalund landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Vasalund attack 0.73 / defence 1.42, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 55% | Draw 25% | Vasalund 20%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 44%, Vasalund 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasalund's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Norrby IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Vasalund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.