IK brage 1-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IK brage at 40%, yet in-form Landskrona BoIS provide a compelling counter-argument — this IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IK brage host Landskrona BoIS at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 2W 2D 4L at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Landskrona BoIS — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 61% and Landskrona BoIS 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 50% | Landskrona BoIS 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.56 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.000 / defence 1.451 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.898 / defence 1.403. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.122. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.403 — this is suppressing IK brage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 IK brage games / 18 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 40% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 36%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Landskrona BoIS 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Landskrona BoIS (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 50% | Landskrona BoIS 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 40% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG IK brage 1.56 / Landskrona BoIS 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.000 / def 1.451 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.898 / def 1.403 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: IK brage (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Landskrona BoIS xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 September 2021 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
IK brage 1 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 40% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both IK brage and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS in?
IK brage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IK brage's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
40%
2.49
24%
4.14
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.03
1.46
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.49
40%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
9%
10.77
7%
13.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for IK brage and 1.46 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage come into this having played 18 games, going 4W 6D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of IK brage — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
IK brage's home form reads 2W 2D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.50 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 4W 6D 8L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 9W 4D 5L in their last 18 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
IK brage's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.00 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IK brage
5
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, IK brage have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 2-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 50%, Landskrona BoIS 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (IK brage) and 62% (Landskrona BoIS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of IK brage's games and 75% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of IK brage's matches and 62% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do IK brage and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Landskrona BoIS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.56 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.46 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.00 / defence 1.45 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.90 / defence 1.40, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 40% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 36%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 50%, Landskrona BoIS 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with IK brage winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IK brage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.