Norrby IF 0-4 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 28 as Norrby IF welcome IFK Norrkoping to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Norrby IF have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Borås Arena, Norrby IF have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Norrby IF are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Norrkoping stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's away record: 9W 1D 0L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. IFK Norrkoping's 2.40 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Norrby IF's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Norrby IF, 0 for IFK Norrkoping and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2026, ended 1–0 with Norrby IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Norrby IF in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 66% versus IFK Norrkoping 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 48% | IFK Norrkoping 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 0.98 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.943 / defence 1.088 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.243 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.337. IFK Norrkoping's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. IFK Norrkoping have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Norrby IF games / 27 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 19% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 55%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Norrkoping 1.82. The model has a clear lean to IFK Norrkoping (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Norrkoping at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Norrby IF 70% | IFK Norrkoping 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 19% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Norrby IF 0.98 / IFK Norrkoping 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.943 / def 1.088 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.243 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.81
IFK Norrkoping xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Norrby IF 0 - 4 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 19% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (1 meetings): Norrby IF 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Norrkoping 0W.
What form are Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Norrby IF's attack rating (0.94) and IFK Norrkoping's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
19%
5.29
26%
3.88
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.79
1.81
IFK Norrkoping xG
5.29
19%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
3%
32.26
21%
4.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.1 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.81 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Norrby IF have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 6W 13D 10L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 18W 6D 5L from 29 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IFK Norrkoping are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Norrby IF.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Norrby IF have posted 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (5W 5D 4L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 10W 1D 3L from 14 away games — 2.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Norrkoping come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Norrby IF are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.86 scored and 0.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norrby IF have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: IFK Norrkoping in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 6W 13D 10L in their last 29 games (1.07 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 18W 6D 5L in their last 29 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IFK Norrkoping's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.43 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
0
Draws
1
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 2 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, IFK Norrkoping have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Norrby IF 0-4 IFK Norrkoping.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 71%, IFK Norrkoping 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Norrby IF) and 50% (IFK Norrkoping). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Norrkoping in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Norrby IF's games and 43% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Norrby IF's matches and 50% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Norrby IF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Norrkoping run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Norrby IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Norrby IF 0-4 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 0.98 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.81 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Norrby IF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. IFK Norrkoping outscored their 1.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.24 / defence 0.73, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 19% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 55%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 48%, IFK Norrkoping 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Norrkoping arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Norrby IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.