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Prediction vindicated as Vasteras SK FK edge out Landskrona BoIS 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat Landskrona BoIS 1-2 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.39 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.61 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.10 / defence 1.08, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 33% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 42%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 56%, Vasteras SK FK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.50 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights