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Poisson model favours Vasteras SK FK (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Landskrona BoIS face Vasteras SK FK.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 17 as Landskrona BoIS welcome Vasteras SK FK to Landskrona Idrottsplats. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 August 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 3W 5D 2L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vasteras SK FK away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Vasteras SK FK's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Landskrona BoIS's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Vasteras SK FK 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2025, ended 0–1 with Vasteras SK FK winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 59% versus Vasteras SK FK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 56% | Vasteras SK FK 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.39 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.891 / defence 1.095 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.103 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.332. Data: 46 Landskrona BoIS games / 16 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 33% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 42%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Vasteras SK FK 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 70% | Vasteras SK FK 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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