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Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trelleborg beat Landskrona BoIS 1-2 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.69 xG and Trelleborg 0.95 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Trelleborg outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Trelleborg attack 0.69 / defence 1.27, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 55% | Draw 24% | Trelleborg 21%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Trelleborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 57%, Trelleborg 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Trelleborg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.55 PPG, Trelleborg 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights