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Poisson model favours Landskrona BoIS (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Landskrona BoIS face Trelleborg.

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Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Trelleborg travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Monday 21 July 2025, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 5D 1L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Trelleborg — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Trelleborg away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Landskrona BoIS: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 0 for Trelleborg, with 3 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 3–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Landskrona BoIS and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Trelleborg in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 57% versus Trelleborg 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 57% | Trelleborg 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.69 xG and Trelleborg 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.937 / defence 1.016 | Trelleborg attack 0.695 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.342. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Landskrona BoIS games / 44 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 55% | Draw 24% | Trelleborg 21%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Trelleborg 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Trelleborg 10% BTTS from recent games.

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