Landskrona BoIS 4-1 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK meet at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 October 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Landskrona BoIS have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 3D 3L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Landskrona Idrottsplats. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Skövde AIK's overall Superettan record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Skövde AIK have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Landskrona BoIS, 0.40 for Skövde AIK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 1W, Skövde AIK 3W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Skövde AIK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 54% versus Skövde AIK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 56% | Skövde AIK 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.33 xG and Skövde AIK 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.843 / defence 1.062 | Skövde AIK attack 0.912 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.199. Skövde AIK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Landskrona BoIS games / 55 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 40% | Draw 29% | Skövde AIK 32%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Skövde AIK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 30% | Skövde AIK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 40% | Draw 29% | Skövde AIK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.33 / Skövde AIK 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.843 / def 1.062 | Skövde AIK attack 0.912 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Skövde AIK xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Landskrona BoIS 4 - 1 Skövde AIK.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 40% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK?
Record (5 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 1 | Skövde AIK 3W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Skövde AIK (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (0.84) and Skövde AIK's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Skövde AIK's attack (0.91x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
40%
2.51
29%
3.48
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.50
1.16
Skövde AIK xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.16 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 55 games, going 23W 12D 20L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Skövde AIK sit at 1.05 PPG from 55 outings (15W 13D 27L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Skövde AIK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 12W 7D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Skövde AIK have taken 0.63 points per game from 27 outings (3W 8D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Skövde AIK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.13 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 23W 12D 20L in their last 55 games (1.47 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 15W 13D 27L in their last 55 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Skövde AIK away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.59 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Landskrona BoIS won 4-1 on 4 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Skövde AIK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
3
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK?
From 6 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Skövde AIK have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2024, when Landskrona BoIS 4-1 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK?
Skövde AIK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 52%, Skövde AIK 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Landskrona BoIS) and 63% (Skövde AIK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS have failed to score in 26% of games; Skövde AIK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Skövde AIK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 59% of Skövde AIK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 63% of Skövde AIK's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Landskrona BoIS run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Skövde AIK 4-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.33 xG and Skövde AIK 1.16 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.84 / defence 1.06 against Skövde AIK attack 0.91 / defence 1.20, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 40% | Draw 29% | Skövde AIK 32%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 56%, Skövde AIK 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.