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Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Sandviken 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Landskrona BoIS beat Sandviken 1-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 2.00 xG and Sandviken 1.31 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sandviken landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.17 / defence 1.07 against Sandviken attack 1.10 / defence 1.27, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 53% | Draw 22% | Sandviken 25%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 53%, Sandviken 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.63 PPG, Sandviken 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights