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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Landskrona BoIS and IK brage share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Landskrona BoIS and IK brage finished level at 2-2 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.44 xG and IK brage 1.03 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. IK brage outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against IK brage attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 31% | IK brage 25%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 58%, IK brage 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, IK brage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights