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Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out IFK Varnamo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Landskrona BoIS beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. It was 0-0 at the break, with 1 further goal after it. Scorers: E. Sylisufaj (64'). That is the bare outline; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 2.56 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.97 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.6 short of their projected output. IFK Varnamo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.73 / defence 1.75, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 72% | Draw 16% | IFK Varnamo 12%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 59%, IFK Varnamo 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 72% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 75% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.31 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments