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Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 8, as Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg drew 3-3 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.28 xG and Helsingborg 0.98 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Helsingborg outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.03 / defence 0.90 against Helsingborg attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 28%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 58%, Helsingborg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, Helsingborg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights