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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Helsingborg travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Monday 19 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Helsingborg's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Landskrona BoIS at 1.10 PPG versus Helsingborg's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, Helsingborg 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Helsingborg winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 55% versus Helsingborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 58% | Helsingborg 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.28 xG and Helsingborg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.033 / defence 0.902 | Helsingborg attack 0.862 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.255. Data: 37 Landskrona BoIS games / 37 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 28%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Helsingborg 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Helsingborg 30% BTTS from recent games.

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