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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Orgryte IS defy the odds to beat Kalmar FF 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orgryte IS beat Kalmar FF 2-3 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 2.08 xG and Orgryte IS 1.21 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Orgryte IS outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.13 / defence 0.87 against Orgryte IS attack 1.04 / defence 1.27, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 57% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 22%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Orgryte IS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 50%, Orgryte IS 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Orgryte IS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights