Kalmar FF 2-3 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Orgryte IS in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 22 June 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kalmar FF's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kalmar FF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Guldfågeln Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Orgryte IS have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orgryte IS have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Kalmar FF, 2.10 for Orgryte IS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 47% versus Orgryte IS 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 50% | Orgryte IS 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 2.08 xG and Orgryte IS 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 1.127 / defence 0.868 | Orgryte IS attack 1.041 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.338. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Kalmar FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Kalmar FF games / 42 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 57% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 22%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Orgryte IS 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Kalmar FF (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 64% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalmar FF at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 40% | Orgryte IS 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 57% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Kalmar FF 2.08 / Orgryte IS 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 1.127 / def 0.868 | Orgryte IS attack 1.041 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Orgryte IS xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 June 2025 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS?
Kalmar FF 2 - 3 Orgryte IS.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS part of?
Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 57% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kalmar FF's attack rating (1.13) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (1.04x) against Kalmar FF's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
57%
1.75
21%
4.77
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
3.29
1.21
Orgryte IS xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
3%
36.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.21 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kalmar FF come into this having played 30 games, going 13W 6D 11L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. Kalmar FF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.47 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kalmar FF's home form reads 8W 3D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.33 points per game from 15 outings (5W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.67 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 games (1.50 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Orgryte IS away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.80 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Kalmar FF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kalmar FF won 3-0 on 5 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
0
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS?
From 3 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 3-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 47%, Orgryte IS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Kalmar FF) and 40% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 60% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 40% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orgryte IS defy the odds to beat Kalmar FF 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Kalmar FF 2-3 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 2.08 xG and Orgryte IS 1.21 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Orgryte IS outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.13 / defence 0.87 against Orgryte IS attack 1.04 / defence 1.27, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 57% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 22%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Orgryte IS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 50%, Orgryte IS 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.