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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IK brage and Utsikten share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IK brage and Utsikten finished level at 2-2 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.16 xG and Utsikten 1.60 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.73 / defence 1.12 against Utsikten attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IK brage 27% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 48%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 45%, Utsikten 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Utsikten's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IK brage 1.37 PPG, Utsikten 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights