🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Utsikten at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Utsikten encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Utsikten travel to Domnarvsvallen to take on IK brage. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

IK brage's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Domnarvsvallen this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Domnarvsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Superettan games this season, Utsikten have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Utsikten away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (IK brage) versus 1.30 (Utsikten). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Utsikten, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for IK brage.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Utsikten have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

IK brage trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Utsikten trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 43% versus Utsikten 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 45% | Utsikten 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.16 xG and Utsikten 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.734 / defence 1.124 | Utsikten attack 1.123 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.270. IK brage's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 IK brage games / 39 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: IK brage 27% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 48%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Utsikten 2.08. Utsikten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Utsikten are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IK brage 30% | Utsikten 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights