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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IK brage and Umeå FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IK brage and Umeå FC finished level at 2-2 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 2.06 xG and Umeå FC 1.06 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Umeå FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.96 / defence 1.20 against Umeå FC attack 0.65 / defence 1.54, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IK brage 60% | Draw 21% | Umeå FC 18%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 53%, Umeå FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IK brage's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Umeå FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Umeå FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights